sunny rainy cloudy snowing
cold 0.01 0.10 0.04 0.20
hot 0.50 0.05 0.10 0.00
what are the probabilities
Burglary P(B)=0.001 Earthquake P(E)=0.002
\ /
Alarm P(A| B & E)=0.95
P(A| B & ~E)=0.94
P(A|~B & E)=0.29
P(A|~B & ~E)=0.001
/ \
JohnCalls P(J| A)=0.90 MaryCalls P(M| A)=0.70
P(J|~A)=0.05 P(M|~A)=0.01
calculate (showing your calculations) the probability that John does
not call given that there's been a burglary and an earthquake?